Replacement migration

Subhash Kak
4 min readJul 23, 2024

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Credit: U.S. Customs and Border Protection

There is a looming collapse of population in most parts of the world (leaving out the Middle East, Central Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Africa), and the population decline in rich countries is being countered by what the United Nations calls replacement migration. This migration is being encouraged because of the belief that the strength of a country is a function not only of wealth and military power, but also the size of the population.

Total Fertility Rates across the world. TFR of 2.1 means the population will stay constant and below it the population falls.

Many elements go into bringing the migrants to the new shores. These include universities and legitimate businesses but also numerous fake colleges and criminal gangs who profit from human trafficking.

Replacement migration is changing the demographics of cities in the West, many of which are becoming white minority. For example, the proportion of whites in San Francisco, Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, and Houston is only 45%, 36%, 31%, 29%, and 24% of the population. In time, this process will extend to smaller cities as well.

Replacement in history

Wholesale migration is an ancient phenomenon. Note that the original languages of Europe are not the currently dominant Indo-European family, and the remnants of the old languages are to be found in the Basque, Etruscan, and the Finnish language groups. There was a massive migration of the Indo-European people from the east into Europe in ancient times, perhaps in the third and the third and second millennia BCE.

Likewise, what is modern day Turkey (Türkiye) is not the original homeland of the Turks, who began migrating into region only in the 11th century. This war originally the land of Greek, Anatolians, and other linguistic groups.

In China, a combination of war, famine, and disease during the Mongol conquests halved the population, compelling the Thai to move southward where they replaced the Khmer Empire. The Vietnamese, who defeated the Mongols, later subjugated the Chams (of the Kingdom of Champā) in the fifteenth century with the last remaining principality of Champā, Pāṇḍuraṅga (modern-day Phan Rang, Vietnam), capitulating in 1832.

The most dramatic replacement of population in history took place in the Americas and Oceania in the last five hundred years with the indigenous populations getting almost completely replaced by Europeans.

By 2021, the indigenous population was down to about 3% of the total population, whereas in Canada, it is about 5%. The numbers for the indigenous people in Australia and New Zealand are about 3.8% and 16%, respectively.

Decline of European origin population

Of Australia’s 27 million population [2024 estimate] those of European ancestry are about 72%, with those of non-European extraction are 23%, and the Aboriginal Australian population is at 3%. The European figure for New Zealand’s 5.2 million people is about 70%, together with 17 percent as Maori and 15 percent as Asian. In both these countries, the whites will become a minority in the coming decades. In both these countries, whites will become a minority before the end of the century.

Canadian whites could drop to 10% of the population by 2100 and the ethnic white British could be as few as 33% by the end of the century.

The projected decline of the European origin people in these countries in the coming decades may be seen as a part of the large cycle of decline.

The process of migration is picking up, facilitated as it is by modern technologies of communication and transportation, and since the population of Europe is shrinking, almost all the migrants are from non-European regions. Today, more people than ever live in a country other than the one in which they were born. According to the UN, the global number of international migrants was estimated to be 281 million in 2020, with nearly 90 million of them living in Europe, with a similar number in Asia. In Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates more than half (53%) of resident populations are international migrants.

As people from the still high-fertility rate regions replace the native populations of Europe and the Americas, there will be conflict due to the disparity of their cultures and it may lead to civil war or partition.

For the United States, the Census Bureau provides race and ethnicity projections through 2060. The non-Hispanic white population is projected to decrease from 58.9% in 2022 to about 45% in 2060. The median age in the US is expected to increase to 47.9 years in 2100, up from 38.9 years in 2022. As the population ages, the Census expects there to be more seniors than children in the US in 2100.

This is part of a turning of history and there is nothing that can be done to reverse this process. As European people become a minority in the Americas and in Oceania, the nature of those societies will turn out to be very different from now.

Replacement migration is an important issue in the political dynamics in Europe and America. The left supports it for migrants tend to vote parties that are for government control and benefits. The right promises to curb migration, but in the end does nothing as happened during the Conservative governments in Britain that let in more migrants than before.

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Subhash Kak
Subhash Kak

Written by Subhash Kak

सुभाष काक. Author, scientist.

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