AI and World Population by 2300
AI will transform the world in unforeseen ways in the coming decades. First, most procedural jobs would be lost to machines for they can use logic and perform decision making in an increasing number of situations. At lot of other jobs, humans will be replaced by robots. To give just one example, it has been estimated that over 50% if jobs in any mature economy are in the transportation sector, and these jobs will be crushed by self-driving cars and trucks.
AI is making people so centered on social media that many feel incapable of human relationships and responsibility that comes with it, and it is feared that the human brain is being rewired. On the positive front, AI will also produce opportunities for creative modes of expression when it is leveraged in novel ways.
The prospect of loss of jobs is clear to everyone, and it has become a factor in the choice many people are making to have fewer children or no children at all. It will also lead to loneliness, social breakdown, and conflict between cultures and governments. I have described many economic and geopolitical implications of AI in my book The Age of Artificial Intelligence (2025).
With regard to world population, Austria’s Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital has three scenarios:
In the lower-fertility scenario, global fertility is approaching 1.3 by the end of the 21st century. The world adult population averages 14.5 years of schooling, with male and female life expectancy both approaching 100. The median age is over 60. In this vision of the future, total population peaks at 8.7 billion in 2050 (up from about 7.7 billion in 2020) and then falls to 7.2 in 2100. On that fertility path, humanity would total around 250 million by 2200 and under 100 million by 2300.
Here’s the discussion of this figure and its implications for society on PBS:
One needs a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 (meaning two parents make 2.1 babies, that is slightly over 2 because a fraction of the offspring may not be fertile). The TFR has already fallen below 2.1 in all parts of the world excepting sub-Saharan Africa and the Af-Pak region. But even in those regions TFR is declining and demographers believe all parts of the world will be below 2.0 by the end of the century.
If we look at the data from Europe, this is what we have:
The TFR ranges from around 1.1 to 1.47. Since it has been falling steadily for decades it has been proposed that it might stabilize at a value somewhere in the middle of the range. The declining population of the natives in Europe is one factor in encouragement of what the UN calls “replacement migration.”
The TFR picture in China is equally bleak, and estimates are that China’s population by the end of this century (2100) may be as low as one-fourth of what it is now, that is down to 300+ million from the current figure of 1.4 billion.
Let us consider three scenarios for worldwide TFR: 1.1, 1.3, and 1.5, which are values already true for Europe and East Asia. One can expect that further societal changes in the rest of the world mimicking the ones that have occurred in these regions will make these figures generally correct.
The TFR of 1.1, 1.3, and 1.5 amount to a multiplier of 0.55, 0.65, and 0.75 going from one generation to another. As the population falls and there is general aging, one needs to multiply the final figure by another reducing factor, say of 0.5. For example, China had 9+ million babies last year. If this holds true for each successive year for another 80 years (lifespan), China’s population will be 720 million. But since the median age of the population will continue to increase and the proportion of women in the childbearing age decrease, the expected population by 2100 will be half of 720 million or 360 million.
Between now and 2300 are about 9 generations with 30 years per generation. The above table shows that the world population can range from as low of 0.005 to 0.06 of the current population at the 9th generation. The current world population is 8 billion, and it will rise for a few more decades this century due to the TFR of Africa and parts of the Middle East, we may leave out the additional reducing factor. The world population at 2300 will thus range from 40 million to 480 million.
There are many imponderables in this estimate. The TFR of 1.1 is perhaps too low and that of 1.5 is too high if we look at the actual contemporary figures from Europe, China, South Korea, and Japan.
If it is assumed that the world population at 2100 is 7 billion, which takes into consideration the dramatic decrease in China and the continuing increase in Africa in the next few decades, we have about 6 generations till the end of 2300. For the three TFR rates, this leads to 210, 560, and 900 million, respectively. If we consider the further reducing factor of 0.5 to account for the general aging, the three values are 110, 280, and 450 million, respectively.
To round off these figures, the estimate for the world population in 2300 is from a low of 100 million to a high of 500 million.
The path to these figures will be one of unimaginable social and political changes. It may also bring about a Golden Age of Enlightenment for all of humanity.
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